White cardboard belongs to packaging paper. As the downstream industry recovers, its demand will increase. In the second half of the year, the festival will increase, and the peak season of white cardboard will come. The improvement of real estate and automobile consumption will promote the consumption of coated paper. The paper species with a large proportion of direct exports will increase the pressure on the domestic market since the increase in the export of the paper species since April.

In the second quarter of 2009, we put forward the main line of price rebound, and proposed that there is a rebound expectation of paper prices in the second quarter, with the possibility of white cardboard and coated paper being large; in the paper monthly report in May, the paper industry is again improving. The conditions for price rebound are gradually maturing. It is recommended to choose a white card and a copper plate with a high price and a large sales volume. It is expected that the price stimulus will appear. Recommend Sun, Chenming, and Bohui.

Recently, white card manufacturers jointly raised the price by 200 yuan. We understand that the price increase is basically accepted downstream, and the price increase is expected to be successful. The anticipation of the rebound in white card and copper plate that we have been emphasizing is gradually being realized. According to the proportion of white cardboard in listed companies in the paper industry, we recommend Sun Paper, Chenming Paper and Bohui Paper according to the elasticity of paper price increase. (Bohui’s white card has a heavy cigarette card, which is stable)
We continue to emphasize our previous view that white cardboard and coated paper prices will rebound preferentially because of:
White cardboard belongs to packaging paper, and its demand will increase with the recovery of downstream industries; the festival will increase in the second half of the year, and the peak season of white cardboard will come.

The improvement of real estate and automobile consumption will promote the consumption of coated paper; coated paper is a kind of paper with a large proportion of direct exports. The increase in the export of this type of paper since April will reduce the pressure on the domestic market.
The profitability of these two paper types is currently low.
Half a year has passed since October 2008, and paper mills have gradually formed a new balance by continuously reducing capacity utilization to match downstream demand. We believe that the price rebound mainly depends on the elasticity of downstream demand. We sorted the demand for paper and the rebound of prices: white cardboard, coated paper, cardboard paper, cultural paper, news paper. (The correlation between cardboard paper and exports is very large, and the rebound mainly depends on exports.)

The paper industry is currently improving. The profit in the second quarter is expected to increase by 50%-100% from the previous quarter. As the industry gradually improves, paper price stimuli are also emerging. The valuation of the paper industry is still at a low level relative to the overall market. We believe that There are opportunities for trading. We continue the original point of view, recommend white paper and coated paper with strong price expectations, and the target companies are sorted according to the size of elasticity: Sun Paper, Chenming Paper, and Bohui Paper.

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